The ‘humankind’ of Covid-19, from pandemic to endemic.

An unknown contagious flu-like syndrome was recorded in the Hubei Province (China) on 12th December 2019. Unlike the common flu, it succumbs to an acute respiratory syndrome which was then confirmed to be caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus that spread from the Hunan seafood market. China took the first measure for damage control by declaring ‘lockdown’, restricting people from the affected area from leaving their houses and cities. However, it does not contain the virus from spreading to many countries in Asia, Europe, Amerika, and Africa that rooted in the most severe pandemic that the modern world had ever witnessed since the outbreak of the Spanish flu. By the time this article was written, 183,934,913 Covid-19 cases were confirmed with a staggering 3,985,022 deaths documented (Source WHO: https://covid19.who.int/).

approximately more than a year of adapting to the new norms, social distancing, and lockdowns, life has finally back to normal in many countries with the mass administration of vaccines (2,989,925,974 vaccine doses administered worldwide till 6th July 2021, WHO). This has witnessed the daily activities coming to regular, businesses are recovering, and people started to come out from lockdowns, travelling and enjoying the EURO 2020 matches in crowded stadiums without many fears. As the vaccination programs reaching maximum output sooner, the world would be free from Covid-19 one day, aren't we?

The bitter truth is, Covid-19 would not disappear but instead “remain with humankind and become endemic” as quoted by the Singaporean Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong (1). The term endemic refers to diseases that continually persistent in a community with the infection rates were often maintained at a predictable rate. Dengue and chikungunya are an example of an endemic and sudden spike in cases are often seen within the community from time to time. Similarly, we would anticipate the Covid-19 to constantly mutate and “stay with us” with outbreaks that are expected to take place now and then in small communities despite achieving herd immunity. Another example would be the Russian flu that started in 1889, caused by a cold coronavirus, spreading across the world in just four months and killing approximately one million people out of 1.5 billion population. The cause of the Russian flu pandemic (probably due to the OC43 coronavirus variant) was not fully understood till 1933, however, today it is nothing more than a common cold. In 2003, Marc Van Ranst and his team at KU Leuven, Belgium, sequenced the genome of OC43 (a strain that was discovered in 1967), studied its mutation rate and anticipating the connection between OC43 and the Russian flu causing virus in the 1890s. He refers to the virus “probably lasted a fair number of years, like bad flu seasons, until it slowly lost pathogenesis,” (2).

Hence, the rampaging vaccination may turn the SARS-CoV2 into a mild flu causing virus like the OC43 or transforming Covid-19 into an endemic, but as of now, we must learn to ‘live’ with it till it lost its pathogenesis one day. Constant alerts and prevention of outbreaks through personal precautions, annual vaccination, and control through public health management are the options available at our disposal to strive through in days to come.

1. Abdullah, Z. COVID-19: What happens when a pandemic becomes endemic? - CNA. CNA Singapore edition (2021). Available at: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-what-happens-when-a-pandemic-becomes-endemic-14932688. (Accessed: 7th July 2021)

2. King, A. An uncommon cold. New Sci. 246, 32–35 (2020).